8:10am - Election Summary
Will history be made today in the United States of America?
Although the polls seem to be leaning heavily in Democrat Barrack Obama’s favour (the final FOX poll put him ahead of McCain by 7 points) this race is still too close to call. The winner will be determined according to which one of the following effects is stronger –
The Bradley Effect – Describes a phenomenon where a non-white candidate’s polling numbers are inflated when running against a white candidate. The cause is white voters telling pollsters they are undecided or in favour of the non-white candidate so not to appear “racist”. This effect was so named after Tom Bradley, a black candidate who lost the 1992 California governor’s race despite being well ahead in the polls.
The Cellphone Effect – Most polls do not target cellphones. Obama supporters tend to be younger and use cell phones as their primary source of communication. The same can be said of the urban poor, who also are suspected to favour Obama over McCain. With their numbers unaccounted for, Obama’s support could be far above what has been reported in the media.
In terms of history, Obama will be America’s first black president … at least as America defines black. Not to bore one with technicalities, but Obama is probably less than 50% black – his mother (Ann Dunham) is white while his father belongs to the Kenyan Luo tribe. Obama’s father was a Muslim – a minority within the Luo and an indicator that he may be mixed with Arabic (though this has never been proven). Nonetheless, the 1 drop rule persists in America and to Obama is the “black guy” for this election.
Whoever wins, the election was a great disappointment. What could have been a high-profile battle of ideology for the ages instead denigrated into a vile partisan hate-fest where dead grandmothers, developmentally-disabled sons and teenage pregnancies all trumped ideas and plans. Small town white America bared its inner racist to the world while some of black America thought of little more than putting one of “their own” in office – regardless of what the man stood for. Some people saw the election as a final chance to voice their displeasure towards George W Bush while others tried to sidetrack it into another tiresome abortion referendum. The economy was a fleeting 5-day discussion, despite the fact that its fragile state imperils any other pet causes that small sects of Americans may conceive.
I started this election a McCain supporter because substance should always trump flashy rhetoric. Sure I want a black guy in office because middle class blacks are tired of being lumped together with the thugs and drug addicts. However, Obama’s campaign lacked substance in my view and the nation’s finances cannot afford his plans to expand health care or any other attempt to “spread the wealth” as he puts it. Luckily for Obama, John McCain’s campaign went surreal by first choosing an obscure fundamentalist-courting governor as a running mate then by launching a “southern strategy lite” where by Obama’s demographic differences were lightly touched upon to the expected jeering of scared rednecks. If McCain was ever a maverick, he sacrificed it the minute he signed up with the evangelical cheesecake. He disappointed me greatly and my support moved cautiously towards Obama.
9:05 pm - Early Lead for Obama
A big early lead more-like. Projections show a 174-49 lead. Master Republican strategist Karl Rove has already gone on record to declare Obama will win a landslide. Despite all the controversy created by Congressman John Murtha (referring to his state as racist), Pennsylvania seems to be giving Obama the nod. Florida is close, which is bad news for McCain because he needs to win that state after losing PA. Although the horizon looks bright for Obama … slight skepticism would still be prudent.
A total blowout for Obama would be tragic in one way - John McCain’s career should not end with such a stunning defeat. Unfortunately he took the reigns of a battered GOP as a moderate when the moderates were flocking to the Democrat Party. He had to make a deal with a hard-right evangelical base that doesn’t trust him and was forced to be the front-man for all kinds of ugly activity.
CNN made an interesting observation - race was statistically NOT an issue with voters. Obama is handily leading among voters who race was a factor and those who said race wasn’t a factor. Conversely, age is costing McCain dearly, with Obama enjoying approximately 75% support among voters who declared age is a factor.
9:40pm - A Surprise
Ohio has given its electoral votes to Obama as well. Assuming Obama will win California no matter what, McCain has to win nearly every remaining state to acquire the necessary 270 electoral votes. Unfortunately, these states include Hawaii, Oregon and Washington - likely Democrat-leaning states. The GOP have turned off news telecasts in their hotel reception for McCain, all but conceding defeat.
11:00pm - Victory
Obama wins Virginia, another key state. CNN has declared Barrack Obama the 44th president of the United States. 297-139. History has been made!
CNN obviously wanted to make history as well, given their news room looks like a Stark Trek set. Political analysts quickly dissected statistics on huge touch screen monitors and conversed with 3D holograms of reporters “beamed” into the studio.
11:25pm - McCain’s Speech Very Classy
John McCain delivered one of the best speeches I’ve ever heard and he doesn’t even seem to be reading it. He’s managed to make the GOP faithful cheer for the historic significance of the election and took the entire blame for the failure of the campaign (which the public resisted). His tone was not even and not embittered. McCain’s reference to Sarah Palin drew mostly cheers but a surprising number of boos. Sarah Palin looks nearly ready to shed a tear. The constant boos from the crowd are definitely annoying McCain. Quotable line: “We never hide from history; We make history”
Honestly, it’s regrettable McCain had to run in this election.
11:58pm - Obama’s Acceptance Speech
What I wouldn’t give to be in that audience …
Obama’s initial message was obvious: yes we did. The crowd actually cheered for John McCain the first time his name was mentioned. Grace in victory is a good trait. Obama played heavily to skeptics who think he’s an elitist by highlighting the grassroots nature of his campaign - from the humble beginnings to the millions of ordinary Americans who made him a household name. Very wise of the President-elect to list all the problems he is going to face (mortgage meltdown, Afghanistan, recession). Just like a lawyer, he’s throwing in mitigating language (”we may not get there in one year, or even one term”) but his offer of hope was followed by frenzied chants of “yes we can!” (which were repeated many times by Obama and his audience in a call/response fashion).
Obama’s seemed to have started his term immediately by giving commands to the audience to get involved right away in community building and not see the election victory as a victory but rather an opportunity. He reached across the divide to moderate GOP’s by quoting Lincoln and reminding the audience that the Republicans started in Illinois and that their values really “aren’t so different”
The public was eating out of his hand and that speech will also be one for the ages.
Addendum
Robert Fulford, a staunch conservative and highly critical of Obama’s platform, has delivered a summary for the ages on the historical significance of the campaign:
Robert Fulford: A Divide has Been Crossed
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Y’know, even though the political system here lost me already I would’ve at least liked to hear discussion about stuff like the nonsensical nature of the US financial system, the wisdom (lack thereof, really) behind policing the rest of the world, and how far government has extended just so the casually bigoted can feel “safe” from The Unstoppable Mooslim Boogeyman, rather than stereotypical garbage about Joe Six-Pack and vague paens to the “middle-class” (a class that really doesn’t exist in the US: people two paychecks away from disaster rather than one are being lumped in with the relatively well-off who spend beyond their means). But nope…
So how’s the content/noise ratio in you guys’ elections?