Cynics Unlimited

Pre-Quiz Preferences

As a Canadian, my primary interest in the 2008 Presidential Election lies in America’s financial future, which has received relatively little mention in the election or the media in general. The two main factors in US financial woes are:

• The inevitable fallout from heavy speculation on mortgage-backed securities. The current recessionary conditions were encouraged by the aggressive guarantees and securitization of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (aka “Freddie Mac”). The government-sponsored enterprise owned over $372 billion in mortgages in 2006 and is expected to write off at least $10 billion in non-payments this fiscal year. Many of the sub-prime borrowers should never have received mortgages, but were egged on by an unlikely combination of corporate greed, government debt concerns (which caused the Federal Reserve to keep rates low even in a “hot” market) and social engineering
• The worldwide war on terror, which has proven extraordinarily costly and shows no signs of resolution. George W Bush’s war budget has ballooned from roughly $93 billion in 2004 to $171 billion in 2007, and Dubya requested requested $193 billion for 2008. According to the Congressional Budget Office, America will be paying $234 billion on debt interest alone in 2008, while the US has borrowed more money from foreign countries during the last 8 years than all of the prior presidents combined.

Thus, it’s not merely “the banks” that will be in financial trouble on economic downturn but very much the government – the government of a nation whose middle class purchases drive the world economy and who also happen to be Canada’s largest trading partner by a large margin.

Canadians who delight at the misfortunes endured by our neighbors to the south reveal themselves to be asinine in light of this economic reality. In today’s global economy, economic issues strongly affect us all, unlike most social issues or religious squabbles.

With that in mind, here are my picks (based on desire, not prediction of actual results)

Democrat: Hillary Clinton
Sure, Barack Obama is on a roll (just having won South Carolina by a handy 2:1 margin over Clinton) but his tilt towards public welfare translates to more social spending. A new national healthcare plan, designed to cover all uninsured Americans, will be both expensive and enduring - it’s the kind of policy that makes sense for a president inheriting Bill Clinton’s $500 billion surplus rather than Dubya’s $160 billion deficit. I can just imagine how historians would write this one up: “Barack Obama – America’s first black president who bankrupted the nation to give away free healthcare to the homies”. Let’s let Hillary take this fall, since nothing she can do will quickly reverse the nation’s financial situation and, frankly, a lot of people don’t trust her to begin with. Let Obama grow a bit and give him a shot in 8 years, hopefully when the novelty of having a serious black candidate wears off.

Republican: John McCain
Of the rather unimpressive lot that are the GOP candidates, John McCain stands out as the strongest “leader”. McCain’s military credentials give him the greatest chance of scaling back the Iraq war without strongly offending the militaristic pride of America’s right wing. Outside of that, McCain doesn’t seem to have much policy that supports debt reduction and some of his platform may be counter-productive (e.g. pushing for income tax relief without an specifying a corresponding reduction in spending). Noted that I may not be familiar enough with Mitt Romney, whose fiscal policies seem good on paper. I just don’t know him that well.

44th President of the United States: John McCain
This one’s close, as both are old school Washington and cannot be expected to deliver the “change” in optics that Americans necessarily desire. Regardless, McCain’s hard-nosed approach to governance and lack of widely-known financial scandal inspires the most confidence.

Quiz Results

Closest matches and other noteworthy candidates are as follows -

Mitt Romney
Total = 45%
Economic = 63%
Social = 19%

Rudy Guiliani
Total = 43%
Economic = 38%
Social = 50%

John McCain
Total = 38%
Economic = 46%
Social = 25%

Ron Paul
Total = 35%
Economic = 38%
Social = 31%

Fred Thompson
Total = 35%
Economic = 42%
Social = 25%

Hillary Clinton
Total = 33%
Economic = 33%
Social = 31%

Mike Huckabee
Total = 30%
Economic = 42%
Social = 13%

Barack Obama
Total = 28%
Economic = 29%
Social = 25%

John Edwards
Total = 25%
Economic = 25%
Social = 25%

Post-Quiz Comments

It turns out Mitt Romney might be worth investigating after all. I don’t seem to have any really strong matches. Rudy was my original choice to win (as someone who also reads Jack’s NewsWatch is bound to point out) but his campaign as been unfocused and uninspiring. Support for Ron Paul isn’t going to happen in this lifetime. My man Obama is right near the bottom of the list, which is suspicious. Of course it’s just an internet test and all in good fun.

Another poll from the same website puts my political views square in the center of the spectrum, which explain why I get ostracized from liberal and conservative websites alike!

Anyway, take the test yourself and post the results in the comment section.

Quiz URL [updated!]:

http://www.speakout.com/VoteMatch/senate2006.asp?quiz=2008