Cynics Unlimited

BBC News Reports on the war between next generation DVD formats -

The battle between two rival and incompatible high-definition DVD formats will end in stalemate, a research firm has predicted.

Blu-ray and HD-DVD are the two new formats being rolled out globally over the course of the next 12 months.

But Screen Digest predicts neither format will gain the upper hand and that the rivalry will do damage to the market for high-def DVDs overall.

Sony is the principal supporter of Blu-ray while Toshiba backs HD-DVD.

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A few thoughts on this format war:

• History has shown that Sony is a bad bet whenever there is an alternative format. The VHS/Betamax war is the most famous format war in recent history, and Sony’s Betamax lost badly despite being having slightly better picture quality. Less famous is Sony’s minidisc - a cassette tape replacement that coincided with the rise of blank CD-R’s and thus failed to gain significant marketshare (except perhaps in the niche market of budget audio mastering). Sony’s memory stick proved to be a far more expensive alternative to other flash media with no significant benefits. Conversely, Sony tends to be a winner whenever it uses accepted media formats - the DVD-based Playstation 2 and the company’s line of DV Camcorders being the best examples. Based on this history I’d back HD-DVD
• Microsoft’s backing for HD-DVD may be the deciding factor because the initial aim for both formats is to get as many players in homes as possible. Microsoft’s upcoming Vista Operating System will almost certainly force a hardware upgrade, meaning millions of potential HD-DVD machines coud be purchased in the next 3-4 years. The Blu Ray camp is unable to force a similar universal upgrade among owners of DVD Players
• Dual-format players will be the preferred hardware choice among speculators
• Like most people, I’ll be sticking with the current DVD format until (1) I have a high-resolution TV, most people’s TV’s can’t even display DVD titles at full quality (2) I’m fairly certain about not being left with a “betamax machine”