“Brazil will win it allâ€
With that safe, middle-of-the-road prediction, this near-neophyte soccer fan put down his $15 in the department World Cup betting pool. Halfway through the quarter-finals, Brazil still looks safe for a spot in the final game; however my second place pick, Argentina, is out of the running, thanks to a solid performance by Germany in the quarter final match. In a World Cup full of disappointing performances (England has yet to seriously rout any team; Portugal’s ugly victory over the Netherlands was unconvincing; Italy’s victory over Australia was undeserved; Sweden battled Trinidad & Tobago to a draw), Germany has been surprisingly stable.
Toronto soccer fans have taken notice. At the beginning of the tournament, the city was awash in flags from Italy, Portugal, Brazil, England and Trinidad – barely a Deutschland to be seen anywhere. After Germany’s shootout victory over Argentina, the nation’s tri-color flag can be found on Volkswagens everywhere. Most people probably didn’t even know there were that many Germans in Toronto.
In retrospect, I shouldn’t have been so quick to discount the host nation as a potential tournament winner: while certainly not the “best†team in the tournament, Germany is still a strong team and has the all-important home field advantage. Germany also boasts the youngest team in the tournament, which could be advantageous as the later stages of the tournament fatigue older players.
German Fans Celebrate a Dramatic Victory over Argentina (source)
Given Italy’s poor performance on the field and my poor performance in the pool, here is a new set of predictions for the remaining world cup games:
Remaining Quarter Finals:
- England beats Portugal by 1. The aftermath is very ugly - angry Portuguese fans cause violence both in Portugal and in Toronto.
- Brazil beats France by 2. This match is exciting with a lot of near-goals but ultimately the French don’t measure up
Semi-Finals:
- Germany defeats Italy by 2 points, maintaining possession of the ball for > 60% of the game. Overall it’s a boring game and not even bad refereeing can save the Italians
- Brazil beats England by 1. Not sure how this game will pan out, but Brazil seems destined to reach the final.
Final Game:
- Germany beats Brazil by 1, probably via overtime or shootouts. Normally this wouldn’t happen, but home field advantage propels the locals to a heroic victory
- Mindful of the historic consequences imposed by flag-waving Germans in large groups, the freshly humiliated and painfully conspicuous Brazilian team vacates the field in great haste, along with any other foreigners who stuck around to sample the delights of Deutschland.
Naturally, I won’t be wagering a dime on any of these predictions.
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